Richmond, VA Multifamily Market Report: November 2025 Complete Analysis

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Executive Summary: Richmond Multifamily Market November 2025

The Richmond, Virginia multifamily apartment market is experiencing a pivotal transition in late 2025, presenting compelling investment opportunities as supply pressure begins to normalize following an extended period of elevated construction activity. With 9.0% vacancy, 107,687 total apartment units, and 5,202 units currently under construction, Richmond's apartment market demonstrates both near-term absorption challenges and strong long-term fundamentals driven by superior economic and demographic growth.

Richmond Multifamily Key Performance Indicators (November 2025):

Total Apartment Inventory: 107,687 units across 1,097 properties
Market Vacancy Rate: 9.0% (compared to 8.4% national average)
12-Month Net Absorption: 2,958 units (18% above historical average)
12-Month Deliveries: 3,565 units (27% above 10-year average)
Average Asking Rent: $1,565 per month ($1.76 per square foot)
Year-Over-Year Rent Growth: +0.6% (asking rents)
Under Construction Pipeline: 5,202 units (4.8% of total inventory)
Recent Sale Price per Unit: $191,000 average (past 12 months)
Average Cap Rate: 6.2% (market-wide transactions)
12-Month Sales Volume: $485 million across 28 transactions

Richmond Economic Overview: Demographics & Employment Driving Apartment Demand

Richmond Population Growth Significantly Exceeds National Average

The Richmond Metropolitan Statistical Area encompasses approximately 1.4 million residents across the City of Richmond, Henrico County, Chesterfield County, Hanover County, and surrounding jurisdictions. Richmond's population has expanded by 4.7% over the past five years, substantially outpacing the national growth rate of 3.1% during the same period.

This consistent population growth creates sustained demand for multifamily housing and represents a fundamental advantage for Richmond apartment investors. The market's ability to attract new residents reflects its combination of affordable cost of living, strong employment opportunities, and quality of life amenities.

Richmond Key Demographic Statistics (2025):

Total Population: 1,405,299 residents
Total Households: 551,114 households
Median Household Income: $90,517 (8.5% above national average of $83,426)
5-Year Population Growth: 4.7% (vs. 3.1% nationally)
Annual Population Growth: 0.5% year-over-year
5-Year Income Growth Forecast: 3.4% annually

Richmond Employment Market Creates Strong Apartment Demand

Richmond's diversified economy provides stability for multifamily investors, with 744,000 total employed workers and an unemployment rate of just 3.5%, well below the national average of 4.3%. The market has added jobs consistently since the pandemic recovery, with total employment now 6.5% above pre-pandemic peaks compared to 4.8% nationally.

Richmond Employment by Major Sector (November 2025):

Government (116,000 jobs, 1.1x location quotient): As Virginia's state capital, Richmond benefits from stable government employment including state agencies, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, and the 4th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals.

Trade, Transportation & Utilities (136,000 jobs): Richmond's strategic location at the intersection of I-95, I-64, and I-295 makes it a growing logistics hub. The sector has grown 11.1% since early 2020, adding 13,000 new jobs. The Port of Virginia's Richmond Marine Terminal provides direct maritime access.

Professional & Business Services (125,000 jobs, 1.2x location quotient): This high-wage sector includes major employers like Capital One Financial's headquarters and CoStar Group, which announced plans to add 3,000 total positions in Downtown Richmond (2,000 in 2021, plus an additional 1,000 in 2025).

Education & Health Services (116,000 jobs): Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) and VCU Health System anchor this sector, which has grown 11.2% since 2020, adding 11,900 positions.

Financial Activities (60,000 jobs, 1.4x location quotient): Richmond's concentration in financial services exceeds the national average by 40%, led by Capital One's major presence in the market.

Recent Major Richmond Employer Announcements:

CoStar Group: 3,000 total jobs in Downtown Richmond (cumulative announcements)
SanMar (wholesale apparel): 1,000 new jobs at 1.1 million SF distribution center in Ashland, VA (2023)
Amazon: Multiple fulfillment and distribution facilities across metro area
Defense & Federal: Fort Gregg-Adams (formerly Fort Lee) continues as major employer

Richmond Quality of Life & Investment Advantages

Richmond's combination of below-average cost of living, strong universities, and quality of life amenities supports continued population and employment growth:

Cost of Living: Richmond's overall cost of living sits approximately 11% below the national average, making it an attractive destination for both businesses and workers.

Education: Virginia Commonwealth University (31,000+ students), University of Richmond (4,000+ students), Virginia Union University, and Virginia State University provide a consistent pipeline of educated young professionals entering the workforce.

Business Climate: Virginia was ranked the #4 state for business in CNBC's 2025 America's Top States for Business rankings and has been named #1 three times in the past six years, reflecting the state's business-friendly regulatory environment.

Transportation: Richmond International Airport (RIC) provides air connectivity, while the region's position as an I-95 corridor hub between Washington, DC and the Southeast supports logistics growth.

Richmond Apartment Vacancy Analysis: Current Levels, Trends & Forecast

Richmond Overall Vacancy: 9.0% and Stabilizing After Peak

Richmond's apartment vacancy rate of 9.0% in Q4 2025 represents a 0.3 percentage point increase year-over-year but shows clear signs of stabilizing after peaking at 9.7% in Q4 2023. The current vacancy level remains 0.6 percentage points above the market's 10-year historical average of 7.3% but sits near the national average of 8.4%.

The elevated vacancy primarily reflects the substantial wave of new apartment deliveries Richmond has absorbed over the past two years. With 3,565 units delivered in the past 12 months—27% above the market's 10-year average of 2,800 units annually—the market is successfully digesting new supply while maintaining positive absorption.

Richmond Vacancy by Property Class (November 2025):

Class A Apartments (4 & 5 Star Rating): 10.5% vacancy rate

Total inventory: 41,795 units (38.8% of market)
Represents the highest vacancy segment due to concentration of new deliveries
75% of recent completions have been in the luxury segment

Class B Apartments (3 Star Rating): 7.5% vacancy rate

Total inventory: 38,260 units (35.5% of market)
Demonstrates strongest fundamentals with lowest vacancy
Strong demand for affordably-priced, quality product

Class C Apartments (1 & 2 Star Rating): 8.7% vacancy rate

Total inventory: 27,632 units (25.7% of market)
Minimal recent construction in this segment
Steady demand from price-sensitive renters

The variance in vacancy by class reveals an important market dynamic: Richmond's elevated vacancy is concentrated in newly-delivered luxury properties in lease-up phase, while stabilized Class B and C properties maintain much tighter occupancy. This suggests the overall market vacancy is a temporary condition resulting from the supply wave rather than fundamental demand weakness.

Richmond Submarket Vacancy: Geographic Performance Variance

Vacancy rates vary significantly across Richmond's submarkets, reflecting differences in recent supply delivery and local employment dynamics:

Highest Vacancy Richmond Submarkets:

West End: 15.8% vacancy (316 units delivered past year)
Downtown Richmond: 11.1% vacancy (1,090 units delivered past year)
Eastern Henrico County: 11.9% vacancy (limited recent demand)
Petersburg/Colonial Heights/Fort Lee: 10.6% vacancy

Lowest Vacancy Richmond Submarkets:

Dinwiddie County: 0.3% vacancy (minimal inventory)
Caroline County: 2.7% vacancy (limited supply)
Hanover County: 4.3% vacancy (strong suburban demand)
Goochland County: 4.8% vacancy (wealthy demographics)

High-Growth Investment Submarkets:

Western Henrico County represents Richmond's largest and fastest-growing apartment submarket with 27,682 total units (25.7% of market inventory). Despite 7.7% vacancy, this submarket absorbed 910 units over the past year—the highest absorption in the market—while delivering 830 new units and maintaining 1,824 units under construction. Western Henrico encompasses the Innsbrook office park area, Three Chopt Road corridor, and Short Pump shopping district, attracting high-income renters with average asking rents of $1,629 per month.

Downtown Richmond accounts for 15,664 units (14.5% of market inventory) with 11.1% vacancy reflecting significant lease-up inventory from 1,090 units delivered in the past year. The submarket absorbed 590 units despite elevated vacancy and has 1,745 units under construction, including multiple projects in the Diamond District redevelopment (site of the former baseball stadium). Downtown Richmond commands average asking rents of $1,671 per month and appeals to young professionals working at employers like CoStar Group and government agencies.

Midlothian, Richmond's affluent southern suburb, contains 8,468 units (7.9% of inventory) with 9.1% vacancy. The submarket absorbed 793 units in the past year—the second-highest absorption in Richmond—while delivering 428 units. Midlothian attracts families and higher-income renters with average asking rents of $1,803 per month.

Richmond Vacancy Forecast: Peak Expected Early 2027

CoStar projects Richmond's apartment vacancy will continue rising modestly through early 2027, peaking at approximately 9.4-9.5% before beginning a gradual decline through 2028-2029 as deliveries moderate and absorption remains consistently positive.

Richmond Vacancy Forecast Timeline:

Q4 2025: 9.0% (current)
Q2 2026: 9.3% (continued deliveries)
Q4 2026: 9.5% (approaching peak)
Q2 2027: 9.4% (peak vacancy)
Q4 2027: 9.1% (beginning decline)
Q4 2028: 8.8% (normalizing)
Q4 2029: 8.5% (returning to historical average)

This vacancy trajectory reflects three key dynamics:

1. Remaining Construction Pipeline Delivery: The 5,202 units currently under construction will deliver through 2026-2027, temporarily adding to supply before the pipeline depletes significantly.

2. Moderating Construction Starts: New construction starts have declined from peak levels as elevated interest rates (7.5-9.0% for construction loans) and high building costs limit development feasibility at current rent levels.

3. Sustained Positive Absorption: Richmond is expected to absorb 1,700-2,000 units annually through the forecast period, supported by continued employment growth of 3,000-5,000 jobs per year.

Investment Implication: Richmond's current elevated vacancy represents a temporary supply overhang creating a buying opportunity rather than fundamental demand weakness. Investors who acquire properties in 2025-2026 can benefit from below-replacement-cost pricing while positioning for rent growth acceleration and cap rate compression beginning in late 2026.

Richmond Apartment Rent Analysis: Pricing, Growth Trends & National Comparison

Richmond Rent Levels: Significant Discount to National Average

Richmond apartments remain meaningfully underpriced relative to national averages, presenting substantial upside potential as the market's economic growth continues to exceed national trends.

Richmond Current Market Rents (November 2025):

Average Asking Rent: $1,565 per month ($1.76 per square foot)
Average Effective Rent: $1,542 per month ($1.74 per square foot)
Average Concession: 1.5% of asking rent
National Average Asking Rent: $1,760 per month
Richmond Discount to National: -11.1% ($195/month below national average)

This pricing discount exists across all property classes but is most pronounced in Class A luxury apartments, where Richmond's average asking rent of $1,785 per month sits $385 per month (17.7%) below the national Class A average of $2,170 per month.

Richmond Rent by Property Class (November 2025):

Property ClassAsking RentEffective Rent$/SF12-Mo GrowthNational AverageDiscountClass A (4 & 5 Star)$1,785/mo$1,750/mo$1.98+0.7%$2,170/mo-17.7%Class B (3 Star)$1,516/mo$1,496/mo$1.69+0.6%$1,650/mo-8.1%Class C (1 & 2 Star)$1,268/mo$1,258/mo$1.49+0.0%$1,350/mo-6.1%

The substantial discount in Class A rents is particularly significant for investors because:

Richmond's economic growth exceeds national averages (4.7% vs. 3.1% population growth, 6.5% vs. 4.8% employment recovery)
Median household income of $90,517 exceeds national average by 8.5%
Cost of living is 11% below national average, providing residents with greater disposable income
Limited Class A inventory (41,795 units, 38.8% of market) relative to demand from growing high-income employment sectors

This combination suggests significant rent compression potential as Richmond's Class A rents gradually converge toward national levels over the next 3-5 years.

Richmond Rent by Unit Type and Bedroom Count

Richmond Average Asking Rent by Bedroom Configuration (November 2025):

Studio Apartments: $1,245/month ($1.85/SF) | +0.8% YOY
1-Bedroom Apartments: $1,397/month ($1.79/SF) | +0.7% YOY
2-Bedroom Apartments: $1,612/month ($1.68/SF) | +0.5% YOY
3-Bedroom Apartments: $2,073/month ($1.64/SF) | +0.4% YOY

Smaller unit types (studios and 1-bedrooms) have demonstrated slightly stronger rent growth over the past year, consistent with demand from young professionals and the concentration of these unit types in newly-delivered downtown properties.

Richmond Rent Growth: Current Moderation, Future Acceleration Expected

Richmond's +0.6% year-over-year asking rent growth reflects the market's absorption of significant new supply over the past 24 months. This growth rate sits well below Richmond's 10-year historical average of 3.8% annually but above the current national average of +0.1%.

Richmond Historical Rent Growth Context:

PeriodAnnual Rent GrowthMarket ConditionsQ1 2022 (Peak)+10.2%Post-pandemic surge, minimal supply2023+1.8%Supply wave begins2024+2.7%Elevated deliveries, strong absorption2025 (Current)+0.6%Peak supply delivery2026-2027 (Forecast)+1.0-1.4%Supply moderating2028-2029 (Forecast)+1.9-2.0%Return to historical trend

Richmond's rent growth is forecast to accelerate beginning in late 2026 as:

New deliveries moderate significantly from current elevated levels
Positive absorption continues at 1,700-2,000 units annually
Vacancy peaks and begins declining from Q2 2027 forward
Employment growth remains strong with 3,000-5,000 annual job additions

Richmond Rent Growth Forecast:

2026: +1.0% ($1,581/month average)
2027: +1.4% ($1,603/month average)
2028: +1.9% ($1,634/month average)
2029: +1.9% ($1,665/month average)

Richmond Submarket Rent Analysis: Geographic Pricing Variance

Rents vary substantially across Richmond submarkets based on location, property quality, and local demographics:

Highest Rent Richmond Submarkets:

West End: $1,905/month (luxury suburban, Short Pump area)
Midlothian: $1,803/month (affluent southern suburbs)
Goochland County: $1,803/month (wealthy, low-density western county)
Hanover County: $1,698/month (strong northern suburbs)
Downtown Richmond: $1,671/month (urban core, young professionals)

Most Affordable Richmond Submarkets:

Sussex County: $685/month (rural, limited inventory)
Caroline County: $1,144/month (northern rural area)
Hopewell County: $1,186/month (small city south of Richmond)
Petersburg/Colonial Heights: $1,194/month (south of Richmond, Fort Gregg-Adams access)

Fastest Recent Rent Growth (Past 12 Months):

Hopewell County: +7.2% (recovery from previous oversupply)
Dinwiddie County: +5.1% (limited inventory, strong demand)
Caroline County: +4.3% (affordable alternative to metro core)
Petersburg/Colonial Heights: +2.2% (military base proximity)

Richmond Rent Affordability: Favorable Compared to National Metrics

Richmond demonstrates strong apartment affordability relative to national benchmarks, supporting continued demand growth:

Richmond Rent Affordability Metrics:

Median Household Income: $90,517
Average Annual Apartment Rent: $18,780 ($1,565/month × 12)
Rent-to-Income Ratio: 20.7% of gross household income
HUD Cost-Burdened Threshold: 30% of income
Richmond Affordability Status: 9.3 percentage points below cost-burdened threshold

Richmond's 20.7% rent burden compares favorably to the national average of 22.5%, making Richmond apartments 1.8 percentage points more affordable than the typical U.S. market.

This affordability advantage, combined with Richmond's 8.5% income premium over the national median, provides Richmond renters with significant financial flexibility and suggests sustained ability to absorb future rent increases as market conditions normalize.

Richmond Multifamily Construction Pipeline: New Supply & Development Activity

Richmond Under Construction: 5,202 Units in Development Pipeline

Richmond currently has 23 apartment properties totaling 5,202 units under construction, representing 4.8% of the market's existing inventory. This percentage substantially exceeds the national average of 2.6%, indicating Richmond's elevated supply delivery will continue through 2026-2027.

Richmond Construction Pipeline Composition:

Total Projects: 23 properties
Total Units: 5,202 units
Average Project Size: 226 units per project
Percentage of Inventory: 4.8%
Expected Delivery Timeline: Q4 2025 through Q4 2027
Geographic Concentration: 67% in Western Henrico County and Downtown Richmond

Richmond Construction by Property Class:

The overwhelming majority of Richmond's construction pipeline consists of Class A luxury apartments, reflecting developers' focus on achieving rents sufficient to justify current replacement costs:

Class A (4 & 5 Star): 4,506 units (86.6% of pipeline)
Class B (3 Star): 696 units (13.4% of pipeline)
Class C (1 & 2 Star): 0 units (0% of pipeline)

No Class B or C construction is economically feasible in Richmond's current environment due to:

Construction costs of $185,000-$275,000 per unit for wood-frame and podium products
Mid-tier rents of $1,500-1,600/month insufficient to support development pro formas
Construction financing at 7.5-9.0% interest rates requiring higher stabilized yields
Class B/C cap rates of 6.3-6.5% not generating adequate returns on new construction

This lack of affordable construction creates long-term value preservation for existing Class B and C properties, as no new competitive supply will enter these segments for the foreseeable future.

Top Richmond Development Projects Currently Under Construction

Largest Richmond Apartment Projects in Development (November 2025):

1. Harp's Landing Apartments - Western Henrico County

Units: 398 units (4-story garden-style)
Developer/Owner: Gumenick Properties (major local developer)
Address: 5051 Cheatwood Street
Construction Timeline: January 2025 start, November 2027 completion
Property Class: 4-Star Class A

2. 2700 W Leigh Street - Downtown Richmond

Units: 388 units (5-story)
Developer/Owner: Greystar Real Estate Partners (national developer/operator)
Construction Timeline: March 2025 start, December 2026 completion
Property Class: 4-Star Class A
Location: Near VCU campus and Scott's Addition entertainment district

3. Wrighthaven Square Apartments - Western Henrico County

Units: 336 units (3-story)
Developer/Owner: Gumenick Properties
Address: 2351 Wrighthaven Lane
Construction Timeline: May 2025 start, February 2026 completion
Property Class: 4-Star Class A

4. 3 Notch'd Flats - Western Henrico County

Units: 325 units (4-story)
Developer/Owner: Edward Rose & Sons (regional developer)
Address: 13170 Old Three Chopt Road (Three Chopt corridor)
Construction Timeline: January 2025 start, July 2026 completion
Property Class: 4-Star Class A

5. The Porter - Downtown Richmond (Diamond District)

Units: 306 units (5-story)
Developer/Owner: Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA - NYSE: MAA, major REIT)
Address: 1613 Ownby Lane
Construction Timeline: January 2025 start, June 2026 completion
Property Class: 4-Star Class A
Significance: Part of historic Diamond District ballpark redevelopment

Richmond Multifamily Deliveries: Historical Trends & Future Forecast

Richmond Annual Apartment Deliveries:

YearUnits Delivered% of InventoryNet AbsorptionAbsorption/Delivery Ratio2025 (Projected)3,4033.3%2,8690.84x20242,7612.7%3,5131.27x20235,4795.7%2,7250.50x20222,2152.4%(64)-20212,9053.2%4,4791.54x20203,4694.0%3,7741.09x10-Year Average2,8003.1%2,5001.00x

Key Observations:

2023 represented peak delivery year with 5,479 units (nearly 2x historical average)
Absorption has remained positive for 11 consecutive quarters despite elevated supply
2025 deliveries are moderating from 2023 peak but remain above historical average
Construction-to-absorption ratio improving as pipeline depletes

Richmond Delivery Forecast (2026-2029):

Richmond deliveries are expected to decline significantly beginning in 2027 as the current construction wave completes and limited new starts occur due to unfavorable development economics:

2026: 2,185 units (remaining pipeline)
2027: 1,320 units (significant decline)
2028: 2,476 units (modest increase from minimal starts)
2029: 2,265 units (stabilization near historical average)

This delivery moderation creates favorable supply-demand dynamics for rent growth acceleration and occupancy improvement beginning in late 2026.

Richmond Development Economics: Construction Costs Limiting New Starts

Richmond Current Construction Cost Estimates (2025):

Building TypeCost per UnitCost per SFTypical Product4-Story Wood Frame$185,000-$225,000$175-$210/SFGarden-style suburban5-Story Podium$225,000-$275,000$210-$255/SFUrban wrap with parking6-12 Story Mid-Rise$275,000-$350,000$255-$320/SFSteel/concrete urbanHigh-Rise (12+ story)$350,000-$450,000+$320-$400/SFDowntown towers only

Richmond Development Feasibility Challenges:

New Richmond apartment construction faces significant economic headwinds that will limit starts through 2026-2027:

Elevated Construction Financing Costs: Construction loans currently price at 7.5-9.0% interest rates, requiring higher projected returns to achieve developer yield targets of 6.0-6.5% on cost.
Material & Labor Cost Inflation: Construction materials (lumber, steel, concrete) remain 25-35% above 2019 levels, while labor costs have increased 30-40% over the same period.
Insufficient Rent Growth: Current Class A rents of $1,785/month and near-term growth forecast of only 0.6-1.4% annually make pro formas challenging. Developers typically require $1,900-2,100/month stabilized rents for feasibility.
Cap Rate Compression Required: With stabilized cap rates at 6.1% and construction costs at $225,000-275,000/unit, developers need significant cap rate compression or rent growth to achieve adequate returns.

These constraints explain why Richmond's construction pipeline peaked and is now declining, creating the foundation for improved market fundamentals beginning in 2026-2027.

Richmond Multifamily Sales & Investment Activity: Transaction Trends & Pricing

Richmond Apartment Sales Volume: Stabilizing After 2022-2023 Decline

Richmond multifamily sales activity has stabilized in 2024-2025 after declining sharply in 2023 as buyers and sellers adjusted to the higher interest rate environment. Through November 2025, Richmond has recorded 28 completed apartment transactions totaling $485 million in sales volume.

Richmond Transaction Volume Trends:

Year# of TransactionsTotal VolumeAvg Price/UnitAvg Cap RateTurnover Rate2025 YTD18$312.6M$207,5467.3%1.6%202438$446.6M$159,4375.8%2.7%202337$480M$150,5156.1%3.4%2022 (Peak)81$1.4B$184,0564.7%8.1%202168$1.0B$173,5645.3%6.4%10-Year Avg59$622M$129,0006.6%5.9%

Key Investment Trends:

Transaction Volume Recovery: While 2025 volume remains well below the peak 2022 level of $1.4 billion, activity has stabilized and the 28 transactions through November indicate buyers and sellers have adjusted expectations to the new rate environment.

Price Per Unit Increasing: Average price per unit has jumped 30% from $159,437 in 2024 to $207,546 in 2025 YTD, suggesting renewed pricing confidence and higher-quality assets trading.

Cap Rates Stabilizing: Average cap rates have remained in the 5.8-7.3% range over the past three years, with Class A properties trading at 6.1%, Class B at 6.3%, and Class C at 6.5%.

Lower Turnover Rate: Richmond's 2.7% annual turnover rate (percentage of inventory trading) remains well below the 10-year average of 5.9%, indicating many owners are holding assets long-term rather than selling into elevated cap rates.

Richmond Apartment Pricing by Property Class

Richmond Sale Prices by Star Rating (Past 12 Months):

Property ClassAvg Price/UnitAvg Cap Rate# of SalesPrice RangeClass A (4 & 5 Star)$272,6407.8%4$243,781-$305,000Class B (3 Star)$165,1396.7%6$101,190-$189,921Class C (1 & 2 Star)$105,5797.4%8$63,750-$256,250Overall Market$190,8527.1%28-

The pricing hierarchy reflects both property quality and vintage, with newer Class A properties commanding premiums while older Class C properties trade at significant discounts to replacement cost.

Recent Significant Richmond Multifamily Sales

Top Richmond Apartment Transactions (Past 12 Months):

1. Bexley West Creek - $102.2 Million ($305,000/unit)

Location: 12608 Patterson Avenue, Western Henrico County
Units: 335 units
Year Built: 2023 (new construction)
Occupancy: 93.4%
Sale Date: February 2025
Buyer/Seller: Undisclosed
Cap Rate: Not disclosed (lease-up property)

2. Metropolis at Innsbrook - $98.0 Million ($243,781/unit)

Location: 4500 Metropolis Drive, Western Henrico County
Units: 402 units
Year Built: 2023 (new construction)
Occupancy: 93.5%
Sale Date: July 2025
Buyer: Foxfield and Park Row Equity Partners (joint venture)
Analysis: One of Richmond's largest recent trades, Class A property in prime Innsbrook location

3. Ashley Park - $47.1 Million ($173,161/unit)

Location: 6901 Marlowe Road, Midlothian
Units: 272 units
Year Built: 1987 (Class B)
Occupancy: 94.1%
Sale Date: December 2024
Price per SF: $229

Richmond Apartment Cap Rate Analysis & Compression Outlook

Current Richmond Cap Rates by Property Class (November 2025):

Class A (4 & 5 Star): 6.1% (range: 5.5-7.0%)
Class B (3 Star): 6.3% (range: 5.8-7.2%)
Class C (1 & 2 Star): 6.5% (range: 6.0-8.5%)
Overall Market: 6.2%

Richmond Cap Rate Forecast (2026-2029):

Richmond cap rates are expected to experience modest compression of 10-20 basis points through 2028-2029 as market fundamentals improve and Federal Reserve rate cuts reduce the cost of capital:

2026: 6.2% (stable)
2027: 6.2% (stable)
2028: 6.1% (-10 basis points)
2029: 6.0% (-10 basis points)

Cap Rate Compression Catalysts:

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Expected 2026-2027 monetary policy easing
Rent Growth Acceleration: Improving from current 0.6% to 1.9-2.0% by 2028
Vacancy Normalization: Declining from 9.0% toward historical 7.3% average
Institutional Capital Return: REITs and private equity firms re-entering market

Investment Implication: Investors who acquire Richmond apartments in 2025-2026 at current 6.1-6.3% cap rates can benefit from future cap rate compression as market conditions normalize, generating both cash flow returns and appreciation.

Richmond Multifamily Investment Outlook: Opportunities & Risks

Richmond Investment Thesis: Strong Long-Term Fundamentals

Richmond presents a compelling multifamily investment opportunity characterized by:

Strengths:

Superior economic growth: 4.7% population growth vs. 3.1% national, 6.5% employment recovery vs. 4.8% national
Rent discount to national average: 11.1% below national on overall basis, 17.7% below on Class A
Strong affordability: 20.7% rent-to-income ratio, well below 30% cost-burdened threshold
Diversified economy: Government, finance, healthcare, education, logistics all growing
Moderating supply: Construction pipeline declining after peak 2023 deliveries
Below-replacement-cost pricing: Class B/C assets trading well below cost to build new

Near-Term Challenges:

Elevated vacancy: 9.0% current rate, expected to peak at 9.4-9.5% in early 2027
Modest rent growth: +0.6% currently, below historical 3.8% average
Remaining supply pipeline: 5,202 units still under construction
Class A lease-up risk: 10.5% vacancy in luxury segment requires absorption

Optimal Investment Strategies for Richmond (2025-2026):

1. Value-Add Class B Acquisitions: Purchase stabilized 1990s-2000s vintage properties at $150,000-180,000/unit, invest $5,000-8,000/unit in renovations, and capture rent premiums of $75-125/month to achieve value creation while buying below replacement cost.

2. Class C Workforce Housing: Acquire 1970s-1980s vintage properties at $80,000-120,000/unit in submarkets like Petersburg, Eastern Henrico, or Northside where minimal new supply exists and steady working-class demand provides stable cash flow.

3. Opportunistic Class A Distress: Identify overleveraged or underperforming lease-up properties in Western Henrico County or Downtown Richmond where sellers face maturity defaults or cash flow pressure, acquiring at discounts to basis.

4. Suburban Midlothian/Western Henrico Holds: Purchase stabilized Class A/B assets in high-growth submarkets with strong demographics for long-term appreciation as Richmond rents compress toward national averages over 5-7 years.

Richmond Market Risks & Mitigation Strategies

Key Risks:

Extended Vacancy Peak: Vacancy could remain elevated longer than forecast if absorption slows
Interest Rate Volatility: Further Fed rate increases would pressure cap rates and values
Overbuilding Risk: Unexpected construction starts could extend supply wave
Economic Recession: National recession would impact employment and demand

Risk Mitigation:

Conservative Underwriting: Underwrite to 8-9% vacancy, 1-2% rent growth for first 24 months
Focus on Stabilized Assets: Avoid lease-up risk by targeting 90%+ occupied properties
Fixed-Rate Financing: Lock long-term fixed-rate debt to protect from rate volatility
Submarket Selection: Focus on Western Henrico County and Midlothian with proven absorption

Richmond Multifamily Market Conclusion

The Richmond, Virginia multifamily market in November 2025 presents a rare opportunity to invest at a market inflection point. With vacancy approaching its peak in early 2027, construction moderating significantly, and sustained positive absorption continuing, investors who position in Richmond now can capture:

Below-replacement-cost pricing as sellers adjust to higher cap rate environment
Structural rent growth as Richmond's 11-18% discount to national rents gradually compresses
Cap rate compression of 10-20 basis points as Federal Reserve cuts rates and fundamentals improve
Economic growth premium from Richmond's superior population, employment, and income growth

Richmond's combination of strong fundamentals, temporary supply overhang, and meaningful rent discount to national averages creates a compelling investment case for value-add, core-plus, and opportunistic strategies across all property classes.

For additional Richmond multifamily market data, investment opportunities, or to discuss specific properties, contact Justin Ferguson at Marcus & Millichap.

About This Richmond Multifamily Market Report

This comprehensive Richmond, Virginia apartment market analysis was prepared by Justin Ferguson, First Vice President of Investments at Marcus & Millichap, using data from CoStar Group, Oxford Economics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and proprietary market research. The report provides institutional-grade market intelligence for multifamily investors, developers, lenders, and operators evaluating Richmond apartment investment opportunities.

Richmond Market Coverage: City of Richmond, Henrico County, Chesterfield County, Hanover County, Goochland County, Midlothian, Short Pump, Innsbrook, Downtown Richmond, Scott's Addition, Petersburg, Colonial Heights, Fort Gregg-Adams, and surrounding Richmond MSA submarkets.

Report Date: November 19, 2025 | Next Update: February 2026

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