Richmond's $1.5 Trillion Maturity Wall: When 3.5% Debt Becomes 7.5% Reality
Many believe they own their commercial real estate, but high leverage means you bear all the risk. When the numbers stop making sense, it's the investor, not the banks, who suffers. Smart real estate investing requires understanding the true cost of capital and the dangers of over-reliance on leverage, especially in multifamily investing.In this video, I break down the $1.5 trillion commercial real estate debt maturity wall hitting markets like Richmond, Western Henrico, and Short Pump — and why leverage isn't a tool, it's a timer.📊 WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:✔ Why 75% leverage means you own 100% of the risk✔ How Richmond's 9.7% vacancy peak in 2023 crushed DSCR ratios✔ The 3 options investors face when debt costs more than NOI✔ Why great investors chase rhythm, not returns✔ What separates investors who structured for permanence vs. those playing pretend🎯 KEY METRICS COVERED:- Richmond multifamily vacancy rates & absorption- Cap rate expansion from 4.2% to 6%+- Debt service coverage ratio compression- 2024-2026 loan maturity timeline- Virginia submarket distress indicatorsIf you're repositioning capital in 2025 or facing a debt maturity in the next 18 months, this is required viewing.---📌 CONNECT WITH JUSTIN FERGUSON:www.justin-ferguson.com
.jpg)
Justin Ferguson is a Multifamily Specialist in Marcus & Millichap's Southern Virginia Office. He prides himself in helping corporate professionals, private investors, REITS, developers, and syndicators strategize and maximize their returns to grow their portfolios at faster, more efficient rates.